CONUS — Get ready as we face a challenging mix of heat and rain. Expect dangerous heat to hit the Central/Southern Plains and the Southeast with temperatures soaring to the upper 90s and low 100s, pushing heat indices to an uncomfortable 105-115 degrees. Meanwhile, the Midwest and parts of the Western U.S. will experience heavy rain, risking flash floods. Let’s break down the forecast for the upcoming days. Intense Heat in the Central and Southern Plains From Thursday to Saturday , those of us in the Central and Southern Plains and extending into the Southeast will endure a sweltering heatwave due to a high-pressure system overhead. Daytime highs will hit upper 90s to low 100s, with heat indices reaching dangerous levels of 105-115 degrees. Nights won’t bring much relief either, as lows only dip into the mid-70s to low 80s. Heavy Rain Impacts Midwest and West In the Midwest from the High Plains to the Ohio Valley , we face ongoing threats of thunderstorms and potential flash flooding from Thursday through Saturday . The rainstorms could overlap areas already soaked from recent downpours, increasing the risk of floods. Damaging wind gusts may also accompany these storms. Out West, from the Southwest to the Intermountain West , we’ll see showers and storms due to Pacific moisture. This means a risk of flash floods, but it will bring cooler temperatures during the day, easing recent heat pressures. This weather pattern occurs because of storm tracks bringing moisture and cold air to collide, turning rain into snow in some higher elevation areas. Stay safe and stay informed. With the potential for severe weather, especially in areas prone to flooding and other adverse conditions, it's important to stay updated with local forecasts and advisories, check out our current weather and forecast visualization maps, as well as selected areas below related to our report. Use the slider to move forward and back in the days and time to view how forecasts will affect an area; the related timestamp is located above the Play button. Be Safe! Weather Terms Glossary What does dBZ mean? dBZ stands for decibels of Z, where "Z" refers to the radar reflectivity factor, which measures the strength of the radar signal reflected back to the radar from precipitation particles like rain, snow, or hail. dBZ is a logarithmic scale (i.e. exponential growth) that quantifies the amount of energy reflected by objects (typically raindrops, snowflakes, or other hydrometeors) in the atmosphere. The higher the dBZ value, the stronger the reflected signal, which typically means heavier precipitation. Here's how dBZ values relate to the intensity of precipitation: 10-20 dBZ: Light rain or very light precipitation. 20-30 dBZ: Moderate rain or light snow. 30-40 dBZ: Heavy rain or moderate snow. 40-50 dBZ: Very heavy rain, potential for hail or strong thunderstorms. 50+ dBZ: Extreme precipitation, often associated with intense thunderstorms, tornadoes, or hailstorms. 10-20 dBZ: Light rain or very light precipitation. 20-30 dBZ: Moderate rain or light snow. 30-40 dBZ: Heavy rain or moderate snow. 40-50 dBZ: Very heavy rain, potential for hail or strong thunderstorms. 50+ dBZ: Extreme precipitation, often associated with intense thunderstorms, tornadoes, or hailstorms. 20-30 dBZ: Moderate rain or light snow. 30-40 dBZ: Heavy rain or moderate snow. 40-50 dBZ: Very heavy rain, potential for hail or strong thunderstorms. 50+ dBZ: Extreme precipitation, often associated with intense thunderstorms, tornadoes, or hailstorms. 30-40 dBZ: Heavy rain or moderate snow. 40-50 dBZ: Very heavy rain, potential for hail or strong thunderstorms. 50+ dBZ: Extreme precipitation, often associated with intense thunderstorms, tornadoes, or hailstorms. 40-50 dBZ: Very heavy rain, potential for hail or strong thunderstorms. 50+ dBZ: Extreme precipitation, often associated with intense thunderstorms, tornadoes, or hailstorms. 50+ dBZ: Extreme precipitation, often associated with intense thunderstorms, tornadoes, or hailstorms. What is Barometric Pressure? Barometric pressure (also called atmospheric pressure ) is the weight of air pressing down on Earth. It changes with altitude, weather, and temperature. Examples of Barometric Pressure in the USA: Example: The Southwestern U.S. (Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico) Effects: Air is heavier and sinking , leading to clear skies and dry heat . Real-life: Phoenix, Arizona, often has long stretches of hot, dry weather due to high pressure. Example: The Southeastern U.S. (Florida, Louisiana, Texas Gulf Coast) Effects: Air rises and cools , forming clouds, rain, and storms . Real-life: Florida experiences frequent thunderstorms due to low pressure and warm ocean air .

How Barometric Pressure Affects U.S. Climate: Typically between 1020 mb to 1030 mb (millibars) or 30.12 inHg to 30.44 inHg (inches of mercury). Example: Death Valley, California Why? High pressure keeps moisture away , making it one of the driest places on Earth . Example: Death Valley, California Why? High pressure keeps moisture away , making it one of the driest places on Earth . Typically between 960 mb to 1000 mb (millibars) or 28.35 inHg to 29.53 inHg (inches of mercury). Example: Seattle, Washington Why? Low-pressure systems coming from the Pacific Ocean bring rain and cloudy weather most of the year. Example: Seattle, Washington Why? Low-pressure systems coming from the Pacific Ocean bring rain and cloudy weather most of the year. Typically between 950 mb to 970 mb (millibars). In extreme cases, the pressure inside the tornado's "eye" (the calm center) can be as low as 850 mb or even less. Example: Tornado Alley (Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Nebraska) Why? Low pressure causes warm and cold air to collide , creating powerful storms and tornadoes. Example: Tornado Alley (Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Nebraska) Why? Low pressure causes warm and cold air to collide , creating powerful storms and tornadoes. High Pressure = Dry, Clear Skies ☀ (Southwest, Deserts) Low Pressure = Rain, Storms ⛈ (Florida, Seattle, Tornado Alley) How Barometric Pressure Affects Wind: Wind is created by the difference in air pressure. Air moves from high pressure to low pressure . Wind is stronger when there's a bigger pressure difference and calmer when there's less - such as stable, high-pressure systems with minimal pressure fluctuation in the surrounding area. Extreme pressure differences (either very high or very low) are directly linked to severe weather events like tornadoes and hurricanes. Regular wind just requires a smaller pressure difference. Pressure Gradient: A big difference in pressure makes stronger winds. A small difference makes weaker winds. Low Pressure: In low-pressure areas (storms), air spirals inward, causing strong winds and storms High Pressure: In high-pressure areas, air moves outward, creating lighter winds and calm weather. Coriolis Effect: The Earth's rotation causes winds to curve (right in the Northern Hemisphere, left in the Southern Hemisphere). Does Barometric Pressure Have an Affect on Humans? There are several modern studies, which can be officially referenced by doing a quick search, that have examined the relationship between barometric pressure and human health, particularly focusing on conditions like joint pain, migraines, and cardiovascular health. It is found that Barometric pressure can affect the body, particularly in people sensitive to weather changes. When atmospheric pressure drops (such as before a storm), it can cause the body's tissues to expand slightly, potentially leading to joint pain, headaches, and sinus pressure. Lower pressure may also impact blood circulation, making some people feel fatigued or dizzy. On the other hand, higher barometric pressure (common in clear, dry conditions) can lead to increased oxygen levels in the air, which may help improve focus and energy for some individuals. These effects are generally mild but can be more pronounced for those with conditions like arthritis or migraines. Difference Between Millibars (mb) and Inches of Mercury (inHg) Millibars (mb): A metric unit used to measure air pressure. It's based on the weight of the air over a certain area and is commonly used in meteorology worldwide. Millibars (mb) and hectopascals (hPa) are interchangeable, and both represent the same amount of pressure (1 mb = 1 hPa). The difference is primarily due to historical convention versus SI system standardization. 1 millibar = 100 pascals (Pa), the SI (International System of Units) unit for pressure. Inches of Mercury (inHg): An imperial unit, used primarily here in the U.S. to measure barometric pressure. It gets its name from how far mercury would rise in a glass tube when subjected to air pressure. 1 inHg = 33.86 millibars. Why the Difference? Millibars are more commonly used in scientific and global meteorological contexts because they align with the metric system. Inches of Mercury are more commonly used in the United States and aviation, reflecting imperial measurements. Conversion Example: 1 mb = 0.02953 inHg 1013 × 0.02953 = 29.92 inHg Why the Difference? Conversion Example: Password Retrieval